Robust Portfolio Optimisation Engine
Mean-variance optimisation is an error maximiser. It takes noisy estimates, trusts them completely, and bets heavily on whatever looked best last year. I built a walk-forward backtester to measure how much that actually costs, then tested two of the textbook fixes against each other on identical inputs. It grew out of my second-year essay on Michaud's resampled efficiency as an answer to Markowitz.
Markowitz loses to equal weight, and not narrowly.
Roadmap
- Phase 0Foundation and clean repoDone
- Phase 1Walk-forward backtester, Ledoit-Wolf, Michaud resamplingDone
- Phase 2Regime awareness (Markov switching)Planned
- Phase 3LLM views into Black-LittermanPlanned
- Phase 4Streamlit dashboard and research reportPlanned
- Phase 5+Explainability and a conversational agentPlanned